Posts by "ashraf laidi"

Jason

I expect we will remain in a bear market until Q4 09. No real rate hikes until probbaly 2010.

Steve

GBP and NZD remain the best USD bullish play. I've been telling CMC clients how bearish i was GBP since last October. The currency is even starting to lose a very important thing; its reserve status. While I agree with $1.60, Im not too comfortable in drawing the conclusion for such an excessive rally in EURGBP. Perhaps 0.85 cents is the max. GBPUSD Overall Play remains bearish, but use generous stops. $1.8470, 1.8520 mut act as significant levels of resistance.

Structurally, the system will remain impaired and the long term dynamics of the economy will continue to deteriorate. As for equities (and risk appetite), i believe they will extend their rally for the next 2-3 weeks, mounting a corrective move, such as the one we saw from mid March to end of June. But we're still in lower highs in equities and USDJPY. squeezing out the weak bears is next. I will post an article detailing all of this next week.

H Jason, yes i remember. Staying long gold remains the better long term strategy. Dow needed a catalyst to recover, but 10K seems inevitable.

Hi Harmonycptl, thanks for the comments. As a matter of fact, just yesterday I was at the FT conference warning them about further increases in the gold/oil ratio. I also wrote a 2 1/2 page article in this month's issue of FUTURES, where predicted gold to rise relative to oil and drag down the dollar. these are interesting times, but the conistently shortlived rallies in the market are a spectacular opprtunity to get back in on the short side (long CHF and JPY vs high yielders and USD). It is remarkable and a great opportunity. but careful from violent short term rallies in equities. we're breaching key technical levels.

Hi Hamish, the retail sales and PPI numbers were behind the intensification of the dollar decline. Have a look at the Intraday Thoughts right after the news. I mentioned in Wednesday's seminar that the Fed's next move is a rate cut and I sent CMC clients the chart showing a major trend line support in EURUSD at 1.3845. Here's what we said: "The chart below shows interim support stands at $1.3844, which is the 50% retracement of the rise from the 2006 low to the $1.6030 high. This level could also coincide with the $100 barrel mark in oil prices".

GBPUSD unlikely to follow above $1.80 which is HEAD in the Head&Shoulders (see chart sent on Monday).
JPY may come under pressure if Fed cuts rates this week, but overall, USDJPY unlikley to break above 108.50. 105 remains target.